Football betting odds – compare odds on today’s matches in Tanzania
Betting odds is one of the factors that influence the decision: whether or not to bet on the match. All the analysis of a football match is done to find out whether it is worth betting with certain chances or better choose other events/other bookmakers.
It is important to understand how odds for football today work. That’s how you will read the betting lines offered by bookmakers in Tanzania. Different offices provide different ratio depending on the league, championship, participating clubs, and other conditions. In these chances bookmakers express profits. Your task is to choose the most profitable lines with high chances for the correct prediction.
Briefly, betting ratio say how likely this event is. Also, how much profit you will get if the bet wins. They come in different formats. Let’s take a look at how the odds of the bookmakers in Tanzania work.
Football odds on today’s matches in Tanzania
As a rule, the lower the ratio, the more likely the event is. For example, a Tanzanian bookmaker can offer +200 in favor of Manchester United vs. PSG (-100). It means that the office analysts believe that the English side is likely to lose to the French side.
Odds on today’s football matches can be presented in 1 of three formats:
— American — such as +200 or -100.
— Fractional (British) — 1/2 or 5/6.
— Decimal (European) — 3.00, 5.00, etc.
In American odds minus notes favorite. From the example above: you must bet $100 to win $100. Plus means underdog. You will win $200 for every $100 you bet. Either way, you get the bet back + the money you win.
Fractional football odds display the amount you will receive in profit, given an amount staked. The first number is the numerator, while the last number is the denominator. Let’s say Liverpool has 5/4 ratio. 5 is the numerator, 4 is the denominator. The win is calculated by the formula Profit = (numerator/denominator) x stake. For example, a rate of 1 shilling can give a profit = 5/4 – 1 = 0.25.
Decimal odds display profit if your bet wins. For example, Arsenal has 2.25. The win is calculated by the formula Profit = (Odds x Stake) — Stake. If you put 1 shilling, you will get (2.25 x 1) — 1 = 1.25.
Usually, online bookmakers offer a special switch for football odds today. So in the mobile or desktop version of the site, you can customize the displaying bets as you like.
Implied probability – odds prediction
Implied probability is the second important indicator for the bettor. In other words, it is an odds prediction on the outcome of the match. It is the probability of the event, which is calculated by the bookmaker. Note, if you add up two opposite outcomes, you will not get 100% as it should be. The number is always higher because the profit of the bookmaker’s office is put in there.
How do you convert chances to implied probability? Look at the table. Let’s take the Liverpool — Norwich City match as an example
The conversion of decimal odds goes by the formula: (1/ decimal) x 100. In our example, Norwich City (1 / 5.50) x 100 = 18.18%.
Conversion of fractional odds: denominator / (denominator + numerator) * 100.
Conversion of American odds depends on a minus or plus before a number.
- The formula for the indicator with a minus: negative American odds / (negative American + 100) * 100.
- The formula for the number with a plus: 100 / (positive American + 100) * 100.
Now, all these calculations will help you in chances comparison and betting. First, you can immediately understand the probability of the event the bookmaker suggests. If you have calculated the probability of the event being higher than that of the bookmaker’s office, you have found the value betting. That is, the ability to confidently earn on high odds.
Remember that you must have a very good understanding of the sport to correctly calculate the probabilities and find the best chances.
Compare odds on football matches
Odds comparison is necessary when working with several different bookmakers and betting exchanges. Usually, the format depends on where the bookmaker’s office is based. In Tanzania, most use decimal odds.
But you can place your bets in Tanzanian and international offices. Choosing several shops helps you to hedge (insurance) deals or find the best value bets.
We recommend that you use the converter online. All you need to do is enter chances into one field, and the program will automatically convert them to other formats and even indicate the probability of the event.
But it’s not always possible to use this converter online. And bookmakers may not offer a format switch on the site. Then here are the formulas for converting one ratio into another. Write it down/copy it to your phone and apply it when necessary.
American odds to decimal:
- Positive = 1 plus (the American are divided by 100).
- Negative = 1 minus (the American divided by 100).
American odds to British (fractional):
- Positive = The American dividend by 100.
- Negative = Minus 100 divided by the Americanodds.
Fractional odds to decimal:
- Add 1 to the fractional representation e.g. 3/1 = (3/1) + 1 = 4.
Fractional odds to American:
- Positive = The fractional value multiplied by 100.
- Negative = minus 100 divided by the fractional odds.
Decimal odds to fractional:
- 1 minus decimal representation e.g., 3 – 1 = 2, which is expressed as 2/1.
Decimal odds to American:
- Positive = (The decimal value minus one) multiplied by 100.
- Negative = minus 100 divided by (the decimal minus one).
Next is the question of odds comparison of bets brought to a single format. That is the key action in value betting.
Value betting means finding bets that give an advantage over the bookmaker. For example, remember the legendary story of 5,000-1 payouts on Leicester, who won the title of England Premier League champion against all the ratios literally. That’s an essence of value betting.
Successful bettors evaluate the real probabilities of events and look for bets where bookmakers make mistakes in their evaluations. It’s not as easy as it looks. Bookmakers’ analysts work out their salaries well and mostly correctly evaluate the probabilities of events. And you cannot bet on underdogs all the time, because it threatens to drain your budget quickly.
Value football betting odds are not based on the concept of “favorites — outsiders”. The main thing that bettor should turn to is probability. It is necessary to conduct your own analysis of the probability of events, such as over/under 2.5, BTTS, corners, and others.
Favorites do not always win. And you can also win on specific markets, regardless of whether the team has won or lost. It all depends on your analysis and the personally calculated probability. If you are sure that the event will come true, you can beat the bookmaker.
Estimate the best football odds based on mathematical models and statistical data. That will help you better than pure intuition. Though, it’s best to combine math and intuition. Carefully calculate probabilities, but remember to keep an eye on breaking news and situational changes.
Value bettors make their profit while review and compare chances at different bookmakers.
So what explains the variation in football odds?
A bookie’s listing football odds can be changed, or you can see a difference in chances of several bookmakers. Why so? Let’s get to the bottom of this.
Different bookmakers can assess the probability of an event in different ways. English shops tend to overestimate British clubs, Spanish shops tend to like Spaniard teams, and so on. Also, each shop puts a margin (its profit) in betting ratios. That’s where it earns their money.
Betting margin is a difference between the odds (an implied probability) and the true chances probability. The easiest way to explain is by flipping a coin. The probability of heads and tails flipping is 50% to 50%, and the sum is 100%. That is, the bookmaker must set ratios 2.0 to 2.0. You bet 100 shillings and win 100 if your betting is successful.
But if you look at the odds placed by bookmakers on real sporting events, the amount is always greater than 100%. For example, the office may offer 1.91 on heads or tails, which implies a margin of 4.7%. You must bet more to win the same 100 shillings. This extra percentage will go into the office profit.
How do you know the bookmaker’s margins? It’s a simple calculation, and with it, you can easily find the best odds football tips. It’s a formula:
(1/Decimal Odds result A) * 100 + (1/Decimal Odds result B) * 100.
Take, for example, the same match between Liverpool (1.20) and Norwich City (5.50). Margin will be (1/1.20) * 100 + (1/5.50) * 100 = 101.51%. We subtract 100 and see 1.51%, bookmaker’s profit.
Let’s specify the formula for the market 1X2:
- (1/Home Odds) *100 + (1/Away Odds) *100 + (1/Draw Odds) *100.
Let’s take the match Manchester City (2.56) and Liverpool (3.20), with a draw at 3.30. And we will get (1/2.56) *100 + (1/3.20) *100 + (1/3.30) * 100 = 100.61%. Bookmaker’s profit is 0.61.
How to compile football odds?
Once you find high ratios football tips, you should check the bookmaker’s offer and compile your odds. You can do this using a system similar to the one used in bookies shops. Two main actions are required from you: gathering statistics and using Poisson distribution. This statistical method produces all possible event results based on the source data.
You can find the chances compiler online: download the file in an Excel table and enter the necessary statistics according to the author’s instructions. But you can also calculate ratio personally, and it’s quite simple.
You will need:
- Internet access
- Excel document
- The website with detailed football statistics like Footystats or Whoscored
Take the 1X2 market as an example in the match between Liverpool and Manchester City. We will make a forecast based on goal rating. It is the number of goals to be scored by team A against team B. After calculating the rating, and you can see the chances on the markets of Win/Draw/Lose, Asian Handicap, First Goal Scorer, and others.
So, for the season 2019-2020 (as of July 2020) there are such statistics:
- Liverpool scored 82 goals in 37 games. Let’s divide 82/37= 2.21 goals per game.
- Manchester City — 97 goals scored in 37 games = 97/37 = 2.62.
Now we need to know the home advantage and away goals. That will act as a multiplication factor in the rating calculation.
- Liverpool scored 52 goals at home, 30 away goals in 19 games. That means home advantage is 52/30 = 1.7. The value away is 30/52 = 0.57.
- Manchester City scored 52 goals at home, 45 away in 19 games. That’s home advantage 52/45 = 1.15. Away = 45/52 = 0.86.
So, let’s take the match 1X2, where Liverpool is at home, and Manchester City is away. And we’ll know the goal rating.
It’s a formula: Goal rating = Goals per game x multiplication factor.
- Liverpool = 2.21 x 1.7 = 3.75.
- Manchester City = 2.62 x 0.86 = 2.25.
As we can already see, Liverpool is the favorite. Now let’s take the goal rating value and use the Poisson method to turn it into our own betting odds.
Let’s create a Microsoft Excel file on our computer. We need to find the Poisson function in it. It looks like this: POISSON(x, mean, cumulative). The value of its components:
- X — the amount of goals being scored
- Mean — our goal rating
- Cumulative — we set it to false
First, let’s find the draw 0-0 probability:
POISSON(0;3,75;false) x POISSON(0;2,25;false) x 100% = 0,25%.
Draw includes the score 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5. Let’s calculate betting odds for them:
POISSON(1;3,75;false) x POISSON(1;2,25;false) x 100% = 2,09%, etc.
Look at the screenshot with all results of the draw calculation.
Convert probability to betting chances by the formula 100% / 13.80% = 7.24.
Now let’s find the probabilities for all Liverpool wins:
POISSON(1;3,75;false) x POISSON(0;2,25;false) x 100% = 0,93, et cetera, et cetera
Convert probability to betting ratio by the formula 100% / 48.27% = 2.07.
We will find the probability for all victories of Manchester City:
Convert the probability into betting odds by the formula 100% / 17.70% = 5.64.
So, we get that the victory of Liverpool has the highest probability:
- Draw — probability 13.80, odds 7.24.
- Win Liverpool — 48.27, odds 2.07.
- Win Manchester City — 17.70, odds 5.64.
And we make a table comparing our odds with the bookmaker’s suggestion.
|Win Man City
We will correct our calculations by investing 5% error margin. That is, we multiply our probabilities by 0.95 and recount chances.
|Win Man City
To improve the accuracy of the method, you can calculate probabilities by several other criteria. All these parameters are available online — read the instructions for use. It’s also a good idea to process data in several compilers and compare results with each other.
Who decides the best football odds?
You, the bettor, decide the best football odds. Bookmakers set the values by the flow of money rather than the real chances.
When you make a decision, remember to consider
- Football news.
- Team form
- The psychological condition of players
- Significance of the match
Combine all types of analysis to get the most reliable best odds today. Read our high odds football tips. We will help you understand all the intricacies and nuances of world football and find the best bets and profitable odds.
Why do football odds change?
Why betting chances change for the same event in a betting office? In general, the change depends on how much money football fans have put into betting on this match.
The main reasons:
- New Information — for example, news about injuries reduces faith in the team and increases the odds.
- Market confidence — if bettors know more and are more confident in decisions, they bring more liquidity in the market.
- Money — betting also changes depending on which side the more money is betting on.
Let’s take the Afcon championship as an example. Before a football event, players and bookmakers have little information. Bettors are not sure about the decisions and invest little money. Bookmakers, respectively, scrape the margin up and offer unprofitable od.
After starting the Afcon, there is more information, and bettors are more confident in their decisions. They invest more money in their bets. Bookmakers change odds according to the movement of money and reduce the margin to stay on par with their competitors.
The more money comes into any result (e.g., that the Tanzania team will become the champion of the African continent), the shorter the odds. That is, below their value. Let’s say it was 3.80; then it became 1.50. Coefficients to the opposite result, respectively, grow: it was 1.50, became 3.80.
Use the odds calculator to calculate the best option for your bet. In our article, we have given you all the formulas you need for value bets — calculating probabilities, converting odds, etc.
Find the best football odds tonight and win!